The First Trade… Thin air.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The ongoing delay in retesting last Wednesday night’s 2180.50 high looked promising through Tuesday’s open. Indeed, the morning chopped around under the 2169.75 overnight high. But not until Tuesday afternoon when the no-bias environment had barely begun lapsing did a rally from its 2165.00 low break to fresh session highs. The breakout extended almost relentlessly up to 2178.00 into the cash session close, then to within 1 tick of 2180.00 at the futures close. Buyers gained traction.
Overnight action’s new info…
Brief consolidation up to 2180.00 suddenly exploded higher to touch 2185.00. Its quick reaction down to 2181.00 eventually gave way, and the balance of the night has trended back down into negative territory. Now printing fresh lows down to 2169.00 testing yesterday morning’s 2169.50 “lower prior highs.”
If, then…
The pattern we’ve been monitoring continues to behave as expected — retesting 2180.00, up to 2185.00-2186.00, and being vulnerable to reversing down sharply. The only wild card is all of this playing out overnight instead of intraday. A morning rally still gets a benefit of the doubt, since yesterday’s rally gained traction for its efforts. Trending up can begin from gapping down, and would still be likely to probe fresh highs, like the upper-end of 2185.00-2186.00. First testing yesterday morning’s 2169.50 “lower prior highs” might be necessary, if that’s still being attacked near the open. That would be dangerous, since gapping down under 2167.00 would form a “session-long decline” setup. The bearish scenario wasn’t very unlikely before testing the upside objectives… which now have been tested.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2166.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2168.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2170.00 would be likely to at least trigger the 2173.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2175.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.