The First Trade… Third time, not so charming.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Testing Wednesday morning’s 2213.25 bias-up target pre-open and to within 1 tick post-open held up long enough to form an anchor. But price resolved down, anyway, rejecting the 2207.75 bias-up signal. That put into play a test of 2199.75, which the afternoon bias environment fulfilled it. RSIs diverged positively on its retest to help launch a bounce. But it had gotten late, and counter-trend sponsorship didn’t stop another drop to fresh lows at 2197.50.  It was the third consecutive session ending in decline.

Overnight action’s new info…
A relatively shallow bounce attacked 2202.00 before reversing to fresh lows at 2194.25. Reacting up to attack 2199.00 before Europe’s opens has only maintained that range throughout. Now its lower-end is being attacked again as US traders start arriving into the arena.

If, then…
Wednesday was the third consecutive session ending on the brink of rolling over. Thursday may be the first session not to fight back. Neither of the two setups for rejecting the late dip is possible if the open were to gap down, as is indicated currently. And not rejecting Wednesday’s late break will likely trend down Thursday morning. Wednesday morning’s anchor still suggests this reaction down will be recovered. But simply attacking last week’s 2192.00 support at this stage should ultimately probe it down to 2187.50.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2196.25 would be likely to trigger the 2197.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2201.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.