The First Trade… Threading the needle

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Already firming up to 1995.50 ahead of Friday’s payrolls, its reaction spiked up to 2002.25. Reacting down sharply into and out of the open fell to 1984.00. Recovering to fresh highs at 2007.50 reacted down sharply again, back down to 1991.00. A late bounce enabled closing positive at 1996.00-1997.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Immediately dipping at Sunday’s open was able to hold 1990.00. Relatively narrow ranging back up to 1994.50 was momentarily pierced up to 1996.00 after Europe’s opens. But that only stretched the rubber band,m which snapped back down to 1988.50 and 1985.25. Now a bounce is testing 1988.50 from below.

If, then…
Thursday night’s firming had already met the next higher objective at 1993.00. Its room for noise at 1997.25 and 2001.00 was met and held intraday Friday. Closing much higher today could invalidate the rally as being only a temporary correction before resuming the decline. Meanwhile, Friday’s new high close all but ensures an immediate pullback would recover into a new upleg. So, a successful top would close only slightly higher today — regardless of the intraday range and pattern. Recovering from a slightly lower open would be that path’s likely first couple of steps.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1988.00 would be likely to hold the 1986.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1992.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.