The First Trade… Threatening bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s slide had extended down overnight to greet Friday’s open gapping down at 2063.00. The morning’s bias environment fell to 2046.00, which the afternoon’s bias environment retested. Their 2057.00 interim bounce was recovered during the last half-hour’s rally back to 2063.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s weaker Globex open continued ranging flat-to-lower down to 2055.50, back up to 2059.00. Firming into Europe’s opens attacked 2063.00, but only momentarily before reversing aggressively back down to 2057.00. It was recovered almost as aggressively, and now fresh highs are touching 2065.50. That is this morning’s bias-up signal, i.e. resistance.

If, then…
Friday afternoon’s range isn’t likely to withstand a retest as support. It represented a retest of early-April’s consolidation that had launched the last rally leg. And its retest was recovered to close above the consolidation. So, either Monday’s open is already rallying — gapping up and extending — or else the decline is resuming. Overnight action hasn’t been overly-optimistic, but neither has it yet indicated a sizable gap up that would be likely also to extend. Regardless, not indicating a gap down should be bullish, as this stage of the pattern is much less likely to maintain Friday’s range.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2067.25 would be likely to trigger the 2065.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.