The First Trade… Try, try (try, try, try and try) again.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Despite surging in reaction to the ECB policy statement, Thursday morning was spent in decline.Its drop had originated during a bias-up environment, so its 1981.75 bias-up signal required an eventual recovery. An interim drop tested the 1960.00 bias-down target to 1958.00. But the afternoon bias environment rallied into the position-squaring window until piercing 1981.75 by 2 ticks. No traction was gained for the effort.

Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s recovery has extended. The open’s 1995.50 high was attacked by midnight, and the 2001.00 pre-open high was probed up to 2002.25 soon after Europe’s opens. A pullback to 1995.00 has recovered.

If, then…
One thing favors extending the rally: Gapping up is the appropriate way to immediately resume it when no traction had been gained for the effort. This being a Friday when trend reversals have a brief window of opportunity, extending the rally can become likelier if the gap up is extended through yesterday’s pre-open high. That’s difficult since a prior extreme can be more resistant to a gap than to trending. And trending relentlessly overnight is easier to reverse intraday. Holding the prior high’s test through the open would become attracted to filling the gap at yesterday’s close under 1980.00, which could extend easily into negative territory with so much room having been carved out by the prior three sessions. So, today’s direction should be determined by whether the session’s first several minutes can attract new buying sponsorship in this area where it has repeatedly found sellers.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.50 would be likely to exceed the 1991.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 1989.25 would be unlikely to renew the bias-up signal.