The First Trade… Turnabout is fair-play.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap down to Wednesday afternoon’s low was on a mission. There were attraction below to neutralize. From “unfinished business below” at 2044.50 and its lower attraction to 2039.00, to retesting the 2035.00 lows that had defined the week-long range. Probing even lower into the final hour to 2026.00 finally found a relevant price accompanied by improving RSIs at a relevant time. Recovering into the close fulfilled a corrective bounce target at 2036.50. Sellers gained traction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Dipping to 2030.25 retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s late bounce, and bouncing retraced the dip. The bounce extended back into yesterday’s opening range up to 2049.00 before consolidating.

If, then…
Having gained traction for their effort, yesterday’s sellers should be rewarded by trending down through this morning’s bias environment. That can begin from gapping up, as the open is currently indicated. But gapping up above yesterday’s 2043.00 prior high would suggest that buying pressure is inverting the bearish setup to bullish. This possibility was raised by yesterday’s close having eked its way back above the trading range’s 2035.25 lower-end. A “session-long rally” setup is not possible, but marginalizing sellers for the day would make a bullish morning. Of course, turnabout is fair-play. In the same way that negating yesterday’s bearish setup may become bullish, now the overnight bullish setup would become bearish by not opening high enough.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2044.50 would be likely to trigger the 2040.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2050.50 would be likely to renew the bias-up signal by recovering the 2046.00 bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2039.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2040.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.