The First Trade… But, wait, there’s more!

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Only an errant tick exceeded our long-standing 2125.25 objective. Its test Friday entered the session’s attractions by gapping up above Thursday’s 2102.00 high. It was confirmed in-play by maintaining the gap up through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Exiting Friday afternoon’s bias environment above prior highs then marginalized sellers for the balance of the day. The close was a new trend high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Friday’s closing action had dipped to test 2120.00, where Sunday night’s open ranged narrowly. Firming back toward 2125.25 soon spiked up to 2133.00 on news of Japan;s stimulus. The singular surge was never extended while consolidating back to 2128.00. Blipping down to 2123.00 after Europe’s opens has ranged back to 2129.00.

If, then…
Friday’s new trend high close already requires another eventual higher close. Not necessarily a consecutive higher close, regardless of Sunday night’s probe of new highs. Being a singular leg and not complex, that overnight high is not a “new Globex trend extreme” which would require intraday retest. So, exiting the open in negative territory could resume Friday’s late reaction down from 2125.25, and put the market on defense for today or longer. But exceeding 2125.25 through the open could trend up into the afternoon.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2126.50 would be likely to trigger the 2124.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2134.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2129.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up target. Exiting the open under 2122.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.