The First Trade… But wait, there’s more.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Recovering an overnight dip down to 1928.00 enabled a relatively flat open around 1946.00. Extending 10 points higher probed Friday’s range up to 1956.00 Despite starting a little late to be durable, the rest of Friday’s range could have been retraced, too. Never mind that, an afternoon slide fell back down to overnight lows, gaining traction for its effort.

Overnight action’s new info…
Lower lows soon came within 3 ticks of critical support at 1920.00. But the balance of the night has rallied, eventually testing yesterday’s open around 1946.00. Its reaction down has recovered to momentarily attack 1948.00.

If, then…
I gave yesterday morning’s late rally too much credibility for being able to extend through 1952.00-1953.00. The afternoon slide earned more credibility than I had given it, not only fulfilling its potential to retest 1933.00, but then also retesting 1930.00. Now the overnight rally is threatening that credibility. Much can happen in this pattern before the open. But just gapping up above 1943.00 could negate rewarding yesterday afternoon’s sellers with control of this morning’s bias environment. Gapping up above 1951.00 would be the optimal rejection, targeting a retest of 1969.00.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1948.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1946.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 1944.00 would be likely to trigger the 1940.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1937.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.