The First Trade… Waiting for a shoe to drop.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Friday’s gap up to 1997.00 was maintained through the open, but not extended until the first hour was ending. The late start didn’t prevent extending to new recovery highs attacking 2010.00 during the noon hour, and then 2013.00 into the close. No traction was gained for the effort.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open gapped down under Friday’s noon hour high. Price action since then has essentially ranged flat-to-lower, still supported well above Friday afternoon’s bias environment lows at what is this morning’s 2006.00 bias-down signal.

If, then…
Gapping down Sunday night back to Friday’s noon hour high helps to isolate Friday afternoon’s fresh high. Friday breakouts already are not often confirmed by a higher close Monday. More so, it helps to confirm a new focus on Wednesday’s inflation-sensitive FOMC meeting, and less on last week’s bazooka-toting ECB. Meanwhile, ranging narrowly Sunday night is due more to anxiousness than to calm, and doesn’t often persist intraday.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.00 would be likely also to trigger the 2006.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2010.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.