The First Trade… Walking on eggshells.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s gap up to Monday’s 2259.00 high was not rejected, all but dictating the balance of the session’s direction. Which was up. A lot. The 2270.00 objective to retesting Sunday night’s high was exceeded, only once, and by 3 points going into the afternoon bias environment. It reacted down to 2265.50 coming out of the afternoon bias environment, and a bounce back up to 2270.00 held its retest as price ranged sideways through the last 60-90 minutes.

Overnight action’s new info…
A narrower version of the sideways ranging of yesterday’s last timing window has persisted overnight. Lows have touched 2265.00, while the range’s upper-end has been defined by 2268.25 — which is being retested now.

If, then…
Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs during the formation of yesterday afternoon’s 2273.00 high suggests it will be retested. Only 1-minute RSI was actually overbought during its highest bar, but closing within proximity of it has reinforced its attraction. Trending ahead of an FOMC statement would be unusual, so the overnight paralysis represents some degree of normality. But rallying relentlessly for seven days ahead of the event makes today far from normal, today already being the most opportunistic day of trade setups. Currently, no “unfinished business above” remains outstanding, and no defensive posturing ahead of this afternoon’s events suggests more upside into and/or out of them. Some negative reaction should be part of the mix at some point, and probably also some fresh high.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2266.75 would be unlikely to trigger this morning’s 2270.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2272.25 would be likely to trigger bias-up.