The First Trade… Warning shot.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Bullish WedEX influence may have contributed to Sunday night’s strong rally. The influence likely contributed to Monday’s post-open surge up to 1943.00. Perhaps it required the surge’s reaction down to be recovered, which the afternoon did by 3 ticks. But WedEX influence had expired by then, so it didn’t require a new upleg. Monday’s relatively narrow ranging around Feb 1’s prior high persisted through the cash session close at 1942.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Suddenly sliding 6-1/2 points into the futures close at 1935.25 was extended deeply overnight. Last Wednesday and Thursday’s “lower prior highs” were probed down to 1924.50 through Europe’s opens. That has been recovered back up to unchanged at 1936.50.

If, then…
The only immediate trend reversal setup is a gap down back to last week’s lower prior highs. The overnight drop showed it to be possible. Its recovery suggests it’s not probable. While simply piercing the prior high does fulfill the minimum requirement for a top, another higher high would be more appropriate before the next downleg begins.

First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1935.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 1933.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 1929.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down.