The First Trade… Wash, rinse, tear your hair out.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday afternoon’s recovery from the FOMC reaction rallied nearly 15 points to attack 2167.00. That’s after initially plunging from 2160.00 to 2152.00.The selling may seem repudiated, but Wednesday’s close dipped back down to 2160.00. Post-close action attacked 2158.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Oh, look. Another test of 2168.00-2169.00 has reacted down. Almost all of Wednesday’s late dip was eventually retraced before Europe’s opens. Surging soon after that probed fresh highs up to 2186.50. But, once again, that area has reacted down instead of extending higher. This time 2160.00 is being probed by almost 1 point.

If, then…
The relief rally to FOMC was among its briefest, and had elapsed entirely by yesterday’s close. Left to its own devices, the rally is up to its old tricks. While proximity to the highs keeps alive potential up to 2171.25 up to 2175.50, Opening flat-to-down this morning would be likelier to attract selling than buying. Similarly, rejecting the overnight dip before the open would be more bullish for having trapped another downleg.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2158.00 would be likely to at least test this morning’s 2153.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2161.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2167.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2169.25 would be likely to trigger the 2167.75 bias-up signal