The First Trade… Wide, wide range.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s open had gapped down 10 points to test its 2127.75 bias-down target. Fluctuating around it ultimately held to avoid renewing the bias-down. That base launched a surge to 2140.00 — and that was just the morning. Retracing the morning’s surge by 13 points touched 2127.25 and still had time for an attack on 2136.00. Overbought RSIs requiring an eventual retest were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Drifting lower choppily, and eventually aggressively, only attacked Wednesday afternoon’s low down to 2128.50. Firming into Europe’s opens then became extremely volatile, surging 8 points to 2139.00, dropping 9 points, and now attacking 2139.00 again.

If, then…
Is that pessimism? Overbought RSIs at yesterday’s 2140.00 high requires at least a retest, and now two surges have stopped short of touching it. The first surge’s complete retracement has been recovered almost entirely. From a contrarian perspective, hesitating to break higher and not exploiting reversal opportunities is potentially bullish. Eventually, probing fresh highs becomes almost obligatory. Not rejecting the probe would likely extend significantly higher to older unfinished business above at 2148.00 and potentially higher. Otherwise, not extending early fresh highs would remain vulnerable to triggering a domino effect that leads to probing under 2118.00 and lower.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2135.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2138.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2140.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.