The First Trade… Wider orbit.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close…
Thursday afternoon’s reaction down from 2175.50 stopped short of Its minimum objective to probe under 2160.00, and only attacked 2162.00 during the position-squaring window. No bounce developed, and the balance of the session only ranged narrowly around Wednesday’s late-afternoon ~2168.00 high. That was under the morning’s 2178.50 high, which had stopped short of the 2180.50 overnight high. And 2180.00 had been the rally’s next higher objective.

Overnight action’s new info…
A slightly deeper dip still stopped short of 2160.00 before bouncing to 2170.50..But a drop that began with Europe’s opens has extended down sharply to test this morning’s 2151.75 bias-down target by 2 ticks. Its reaction is attacking 2160.00.

If, then…
Probing the prior day’s high and closing back under it is not a sign of strength. Yesterday’s close was AT Wednesday’s high, which doesn’t represent any stronger of a rally. Overnight action has dipped deeper, but remains within yesterday’s range, which also qualifies as orbiting around Wednesday’s high. Extending the rally still can’t afford much of a delay to resuming post-open, or else a much deeper pullback will develop. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias often persists through the noon hour — and there’s plenty of room below for a correction.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2154.25 would be likely to trigger the 2157.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2160.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.