Gap up, bias-up… two out of three ain’t bad.

Well, it’s not great.

[pay]The overnight rally had extended pre-open to 1867.50. The open blipped up to quickly test the 1868.50 bias-up target. And the balance of the bias timing window trended down to test the 1863.00 bias-up signal.

It wasn’t actually trending, just a series of lower highs and lower lows. Maybe it wasn’t actually a bias-up, just its recovery through the open.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m still not bearish.  An opportunity failed to reject bias-up through 10:30 when a probe under it was retraced. But only back to 1863.00, which doesn’t qualify for rejecting its 10:15 recovery, but also doesn’t help to trap sellers.

And now 1863.00 support is being  probed again.

Typically, rejecting a gap up above prior highs is done during the opening 15 minutes. Today’s wasn’t. Typically, rejecting a triggered bias-up is done decisively at 10:30, and this one wasn’t. Sellers are weak hands, but only slightly weaker than buyers.

Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under the first hour’s 1861.25 low would invalidate the 10:15 signal that avoided being invalidated at 10:30. Otherwise, resolving up remains likelier.

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