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Getting away with it? – If, Then… Market Timing

Getting away with it?

Post-open plunge is almost fully recovered.

It”s too late to invalidate this morning”s bias-down signal. That triggered under 2104.25, and it put into play 2098.50. But since extending down to 2100.25, a rally has extended back to the 2113.50 open.

Is the bias-down target moot? No. Has the trend reversed back up? Possibly.

It”s too late to Invalidate the bias-down signal. It produced lower lows (down to 2100.25) after 10:15, so its 2098.50 target has become “unfinished business below” that requires an eventual test.

Meanwhile, probing under Friday”s lows neutralized their “ineffectual optimism.” We knew that would rob sellers of a lot of traction, along with still overlapping 2101.50. But the bounce I was expecting has extended well beyond my 2106.50 target.

And now this afternoon”s bias-up has triggered.

I”m not expecting a substantial durable recovery. But this afternoon”s 2118.00 bias-up target can be probed by 3 points of noise before suggesting a bigger rally is underway.