Here’s your hat, what’s your hurry?

“Here”s your hat, what”s your hurry?”

I”ve been told this was a useful replacement to “good night, thank you for visiting,” when the visitor didn”t realize it was time to leave. It probably wasn”t very successful — if the guest doesn”t realize he has overstayed his welcome, then he”s not likely to pick up subtle social cues.

So, don”t bother telling this price decline you”ve had enough. It doesn”t care. It came for the free food, of which there was plenty. And it has quite the appetite.

Look at some of this morning”s hits. Does anyone really think XYZ company as an ongoing concern is suddenly worth 10% less than at Friday”s close? Or 25% and 33% less than two weeks ago? Perhaps it wasn”t really worth double or triple then what it had been only one month earlier. (Ya think?)

The point is that this sell-off isn”t the end of the world. It isn”t even the end of the sector. This is just the phase where everyone figures out the last upleg already ended. Stocks generally fluctuate in ranges of perceived valuation. These stocks fluctuate in ranges of enthusiasm. 

The time to buy is when enthusiasm is down, right? Well, yes. And no. Other factors matter, like timing. Take some time to look at charts two weeks ago, when I first bought the morning spikes down on stocks we had been stalking. That was the middle of the week, when selling had had a chance to run its course — and as importantly, buyers had a chance to make their money before the weekend. This may be Monday, but it”s also the afternoon of a surprising day. It”s too early to buy aggressively.

Here”s another problem with getting bullish today. Did you notice the weekend news items (Holder, Maryland, Branson) and the optimism they generated? That makes today”s price action only more cause for disappointment. Better now, when it can fuel capitulation, instead of later when that disappointment can extend a decline. 

But I”m still not suggesting the trend is “over.” The S&P 500 just entered its noon hour at fresh session lows. Technically, after a morning like today, in the context of a second-day trend, this is difficult to recover and likelier to bleed into the next day. I”m not looking for speculative premiums to re-inflate today.

Until search is enabled, be sure to review the most recent video(s), which are arranged alphabetically. Relevant prices are there if you”re eager to bottom-fish. Don”t confuse that with “averaging down,” which I”ll be back later to discuss.

Now, where”s my hat…?