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It’s all Greek to sellers. – If, Then… Market Timing

It’s all Greek to sellers.

The reaction up from 1996.00 to 2004.00 resolved down to a fresh low at 1993.25. The bias environment exit ranged choppily around 1996.00. An 11-point surge from 1994.00 entered the noon hour attacking 2006.00. That has improved to 2010.00.

The surge”s catalyst was a headline that lowers the Grexit threat. It”s no more than a headline, but it”s getting a big reaction. We can give it a benefit of the doubt so long as pullback limits hold — which they essentially have since triggering a buy signal at 2000.00

But the surge”s timing is principally similar to the open”s surge. That, too, extended a lot initially, and then extended further after only a shallow consolidation, also during a timing window that is vulnerable to counter-trend moves.

Having failed to exploit yesterday”s bullish Pivot Reversal this morning, the setup can invert to being bearish. Potentially very bearish, considering the weekend”s impending illiquidity, and the nearby well-worn support. Also, no more “lower prior highs” are available for another fresh low to bounce off of — there are only prior lows, and their reactions tend to be temporary.

Triggering bias-up would suggest another bullet had been dodged. Range-bound Friday afternoons aren”t unusual, but this isn”t a usual environment.