LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP

Fresh intraday high fails to gain traction.

[pay]Post-open gyrations are honoring the limitations discussed during this morning’s Market Tour. The bank holiday’s lower liquidity is preventing trending beyond a bias signal, but not preventing a bias signal test. And despite the open’s 3-point spike down to 1764.00, the 1769.50 bias-up signal was tested.

The bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Late no-bias triggered at 10:30, putting into play an offsetting test of the 1763.00 bias-down signal.

Triggering a late signal is less reliable than triggering it cleanly. Its objective is still credible, but reactions along the way there are more vulnerable to abandoning the objective and reversing direction. That’s especially concerning up here at the highs, and within the orbit of Thursday’s 1774.50 pre-open high.

Back above 1769.00 would start to signal the high’s retest is underway, instead. Its retest could visit 1777.75. Otherwise, fresh session lows would be vulnerable to extending down and retracing much more of Friday’s rally.

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