LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP

The post-open blog post’s subject is now the bias signal.

[pay]Pre-open action extended above overnight highs, and post-open action touched 1751.75. That allowed room during the opening 15 minutes of volatility to range narrowly, supported by the overnight highs.

But 1751.75 held its test through 9:45, missing an opportunity to reinforce the 1750.50 bias-up attempt. A later surge came within 3 ticks of touching Tuesday’s 1754.50 high, neutralizing the attraction to retest its overbought RSIs. Its reaction down failed to hold 1750.50, triggering no-bias, and putting into play a test of the 1744.00 bias-down signal.

The bias signal actually triggered late, having invoked the grace period by touching the 1750.50 bias-up signal within 3 minutes of 10:15. The signal’s lateness was offset by probing fresh post-open lows through 10:30. But the 1744.00 objective won’t become unfinished business if left outstanding.

Also undermining the downside is that the 1754.50 unfinished business above would be better resolved by actually probing it, not just attacking it to within 3 ticks. But the 3-tick rule exists because that can suffice.

And this being a Friday, this morning’s no-bias is likely to persist through the noon hour. Slow-playing an eventual dip to 1744.00 would be better positioned to extending down through the afternoon. That path could include more backing-and-filling, with room to test the 1750.50 bias-up signal as resistance — probing it by 3 ticks would also retrace the 1753.75-1747.50 drop by a natural 61.8%.

Exiting the bias environment back above its 1750.50 bias-up signal, which was rejected late, could marginalize sellers for the day.

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