Market Wrap (recording & summary)

The pattern since Wednesday afternoon had been to probe prior highs and then reverse down. Friday’s pattern was no different structurally, only in degree. Gapping up above the 2436.50 prior high would have broken the pattern and enabled trending higher into the weekend. Only recovering to 2436.50 during the opening 15 minutes of volatility had left the morning’s rally vulnerable to retracing.

Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. The noon hour’s exit had retraced the morning’s rally from 2443.50 only to unchanged at 2430.00. That was the wrong place to be when the bias-up influence disappeared. Support wasn’t helped by NDX already having reversed back to Thursday’s lows. The next lower objective at 2419.25 attracted price down to it, and through it by another 61.8% to 2412.50.

The final hour was entered by a bounce up to 2418.00. Extending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window can’t change whether the bounce’s origin was too low and too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Oversold RSIs at the low require a retest.

Of course, overbought RSIs at the high also require a retest. Presumably that would be done while satisfying the requirement for at least one more new high close. Speaking of which, the rally just failed to exploit the proximity to another new trend high close on a Friday.

Overbought RSIs

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

The link to this weekend’s Saturday Review will be delivered in the morning before its 9:30am ET start.