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Market Wrap (recording & summary) – If, Then… Market Timing

Market Wrap (recording & summary)

The market wanted to trade higher on the FOMC news. So much so that it attacked last Friday’s 2443.50 high before the open. Reacting down on the Washington-DC news was quickly recovered to attack Friday’s high even closer. The recovery was too quick, and the morning was spent declining and consolidating.

The afternoon’s news greeted a narrow range that didn’t react much initially. A blip-down to 2434.00 snapped back up to attack 2441.00, but only to drop back down into the morning’s consolidation. Like the policy statement itself, Yellen’s Q&A wasn’t greeted from a position of strength.

So, if buyers can’t be attracted to the mountain, then the market drops to where they are. That was likely nearer to the afternoon’s 2427.25 bias-down target. It was probed by more than 1 point, filling the gap back down to Monday’s close. Bars only overlapped the target while RSIs diverged positively. Its reaction up triggered a buy signal above 2429.50 and extended up to 2437.75.

Wednesday’s pre-open high nearly neutralized the attraction to last week’s overbought RSIs, but it remains outstanding. As does the requirement for one more new high close. Meanwhile, rejecting positive territory in favor of negative territory has formed a passively bearish WedEX. That doesn’t require dipping any deeper before Friday afternoon. Remember, trends rarely reverse AT an expiration, even a Quadruple Witch like this week.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.