Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Friday’s 2456.50 close held its tests. Monday closed at or around it, still overlapping it, or still overlapping Friday’s leg that had closed at it. So, the newly-created “unfinished business above” remains outstanding, as the trend still requires a new trend high close. Regardless of something suppressing price action — whether currency moves or oncoming quarterly earnings onslaught — the requirement is the requirement.

Monday’s intraday range is too narrow to rely on its pattern(s) being predictive of behavior in a more heavily-sponsored environment. And the weekend’s gap since Friday afternoon’s surge undermines comparing it to Monday’s price action for a likely resolution. Nevertheless, there are templates operating on several elements — such as the new trend extreme close on a Friday, the Friday afternoon surge, and Monday morning’s “lower prior highs” beginning at 2450.00.

Not immediately extending a new trend extreme close from a Friday does tend to begin a retracement. Each day of delaying that retracement makes its minimum likely objective deeper, under 2450.00. Extending the trend anyway on Tuesday after not beginning a retracement Monday does tend to be short-lived, whether up to 2464.00-2465.00 or 5 points higher. But nothing speaks to whether that must be isolated overnight, although it can be.

Four other elements developed Monday. First, the repeated testing of 2456.50 as support from above. Second, the repeated bounces off of 2456.50 without extending higher. Third, trending down to fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 window. Fourth, a second consecutive close AT 2456.50 where a lot of buying pressure had been satisfied already. Nothing bullish, but nothing preventing a temporary probe or two higher.