Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Wednesday behaved like a session-long rally, trending up through every timing window. But the pattern going into the session didn’t allow for that setup. Why would that matter? A session-long rally would be likely to extend the next morning. Thursday might extend anyway, but isn’t required.

The pattern is also behaving like the resolution to an extended narrowing range. That’s when a false break in one direction reverses more substantially in the opposite direction. This is not that, either, since the range off Friday’s high had not narrowed. Why would that matter? Because the more substantial leg’s duration can be timed against the false break. This one would end Thursday in decline.

A setup that is in effect, actually is no longer in effect — Friday’s requirement for a new trend extreme close is now fulfilled. There is no “unfinished business above.” We’ll see how long that lasts. Wednesday was a breakout from a multi-session range, so a second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm and require yet another higher close. Or more.

Meanwhile, the ongoing template suggests fresh highs will be short-lived. Closing higher Thursday anyway would go a long way to suggesting this breakout could go a long way. Not confirming Wednesday’s breakout Thursday could open the door to reversing down a long way instead.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.