Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Buyers gained traction for their efforts Wednesday. Exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour’s high and then entering the final hour even higher is combined to signal that Thursday morning will trend higher. With two caveats. The signal could have been invalidated by trending back down through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Thursday’s open could be greeted by a reversal signal like gapping down under the afternoon’s 2466.00 low (which would also form a “session-long decline” setup).

The first exception didn’t happen, but the second setup might. Wednesday morning’s post-open slide was the third consecutive. Pavlovian conditioning would suggest the market is anticipating a fourth post-open slide on Thursday. That makes the prior timing windows vulnerable to sliding. It didn’t happen late Wednesday, leaving it to the overnight.

Avoiding an overnight drop would be likelier to absorb a morning dip, at least retracing it to unchanged if not also reversing it to an afternoon rally. Gapping up isn’t necessary to rallying tomorrow, but it’s the likeliest defense against the overnight downside risk.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.