Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Thursday’s drop either ended the decline, or took us to the brink of it getting serious.

This week’s overnight and intraday tests of the 2471.00-2473.50 maximum corrective bounce limits essentially reset last week’s drop from its Pivot Reversal session. It was not just one, but two opportunities for the rally’s sponsorship to reassert itself. Neither was exploited, so the correction’s origin below became the next leg’s target.

Reacting down Wednesday was almost required. Extending down Thursday was more than required. Now almost any delay to extending down would be considered sellers refueling. No delay is required, not without gapping up above Thursday afternoon’s 2445.75 high. Any shallower open — gapping or otherwise — would likely resolve down to 2421.11-2425.25 and possibly lower.

There’s even potential for gapping down under 2411.00 and extending lower from there. It was the least likely of the three likeliest scenarios we discussed during the Saturday Review. It’s still the least likely, but likelier than it was at this price last week. That was after Friday Factors, but now they can help.

Also helpful to the decline is the bearish WedEX that had triggered after Wednesday’s close. Whether it plays itself out already Friday morning, or dooms a bounce to failure Friday afternoon, it reqiures fresh lows at some point.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.