Market Wrap (recording & summary)

For closing almost unchanged Thursday, the rally’s essence was thoroughly tested since Wednesday’s close. Two separate collapses from 2574.00 or higher each tested the 2563.75 or lower. And each was recovered entirely. The first collapse was overnight, and recovered to greet Thursday’s open unchanged. But it didn’t attract reinforcements, which enabled another collapse.

The latter recovery stopped short of the morning’s highs at unchanged while consolidating through the afternoon down to 2571.00. But the final hour rallied to fresh session highs at 2578.25. That’s positive territory, but still short of Wednesday afternoon’s prior highs — and late enough to be suspicious of its sponsorship being weak-handed optimists ahead of Friday morning’s Employment Situation report.

The vulnerability to reacting down Friday is mitigated somewhat by the two failed attempts to break under a relevant low. This usually means that sellers are done. But there’s no bullish reason for another reaction down — as a collapse, or otherwise — so there’s no bullish excuse to delay rallying. Rallying would target a retest of 2585.50, if not also the rally’s 2590.50 objective, and possibly another new trend high close on a Friday. Fresh lows could extend intraday down to 2253.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.