Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Tuesday morning offered the rare reminder that bias environments are context. Bias signals are not necessarily directional. At least, not necessarily the initial direction.

Holding a test of the 2643.00 bias-up signal put into play an offsetting test of its 2635.50 bias-down signal. The window’s price action would normally develop between the signals. Not Tuesday. The no-bias environment probed above its bias-up signal to test its 2648.25 bias-up target that wasn’t even in-play.

Recovering the bias-up signal through 10:30 could have invalidated the 10:15 signal. Absent that, the bias-up target could have served as proxy for the signal, and recovering the target through 11:30 could have invalidated the 10:15 signal. Absent both, the offsetting test of the 2636.50 bias-down signal became “unfinished business below.”

Already trading back down into the noon hour was helpful confirmation that the morning’s rally was “no-bias trending.” Even extending higher, first, would have been in the context of being doomed to failure. Sellers were refueled by letting buyers fulfill their target. Weak-handed buyers, as indicated by how late they finally took control.

All of which delayed the expected eventual test of 2631.75. Still testing it (to within 3 ticks, within 3 minutes) at the cash session close neither holds it nor rejects it. An earlier test would have had more time to resolve the test more clearly. That’s probably not a bug, it’s a feature — the market didn’t do anything it didn’t collectively want to do.

If the market wanted to trend Wednesday, then it would have resolved the 2631.75 test decisively on Tuesday. Or else, Wednesday’s open will immediately exceed a proxy level. Absent nothing so substantial so immediately, Wednesday’s session is vulnerable to trending aggressively in one direction, and then reversing, both intraday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.