Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Sponsorship of relentless overnight trending tends either to be overcome through the open, or not. One But extending the overnight trend isn’t required. Monday’s gap up wasn’t overcome through the open, so the session could have extended higher, even though it did not.

Such restrained optimism could be constructive, but at new highs I suspect that buying pressure is waning. Similar to Monday not being required to extend higher, waning upside doesn’t require reversing down. This is more of a re-positioning window. And probing any higher would be vulnerable to failure.

Probing higher before trying to reverse down would be distributive, testing 2699.75-2700.785 or 2703.00. Dipping overnight to 2688.00 could neutralize sellers to enable fresh highs. But breaking under 2688.00 without yet probing above Monday’s high is unlikely to trend down.

The path among those levels will diminish or deplete the excessive optimism ahead of Tuesday’s weighty event, the tax reform vote. Of course, there’s more influencing the market than that, but it probably won’t seem that way into and out of passing the vote, or the vote’s delay, or its failure.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.