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Market Wrap (recording & summary) – If, Then… Market Timing

Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Wednesday left outstanding two pieces of “unfinished business below.” Oversold RSIs at the morning’s  2679.00 low, and an offsetting test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. There’s no timing requirement to neutralize their attractions. Rallying while they remain outstanding would be likely to fail. But their tests remain likely so long as 2688.50-2692.00 holds as resistance.

Testing the attractions below need only be done by backing-and-filling, or by a failed attempt to repeat Tuesday and Wednesday morning’s slides. But those slides were injected into a shrinking window of opportunity ahead of the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness. Closing the window doesn’t prevent another slide attempt, it only makes the attempt likely to fail.

So, a failed slide is likely to recover to test resistance above. First neutralizing the attractions below would be likelier to recover back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00 — perhaps into the weekend by then. Meanwhile, gapping up Thursday would have one chance to already rally to new highs, or else stretch the rubber band to probe under Wednesday’s lows.