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Market Wrap (recording & summary) – If, Then… Market Timing

Market Wrap (recording & summary)

By Rod David | December 29, 2017 - 4:32 pm

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR’S! Thank you sincerely for subscribing. I’m glad you’ll be joining me in looking forward to an interesting and profitable 2018.

Friday’s sellers didn’t appear until the pre-open pop. But they were in control through the last drop. And it was a biggie.

Recognizing the week’s pattern of rejecting overnight rallies kept us alert at the open for a potential collapse. If we were disappointed, it was by not getting a post-open probe above prior highs. But the 2698.25 overnight high didn’t form a “new Globex trend extreme,” so its retest wasn’t required.

Tests of both bias-up parameters were rejected as the 2692.25 sell signal became very productive. The resulting no-bias put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. So did last Wednesday, but its no-bias was triggered late and its 2675.50 bias-down target was left outstanding. Friday’s clean no-bias still had to chip away at 2684.25 support until the 3:37 position-squaring window.

Admittedly, a head-fake after the 3:10-3:20 proxy window didn’t even hint at what was coming. But its bounce to 2686.50 was reversed nearly 18 points as price collapsed 2668.75 through the close.

“Unfinished business below” that had been outstanding all week is now neutralized. Not in time to recover relevant resistance by 3:57 which would have trapped sellers. But also not in time for closing under its lowest objective to put into play 2660.00 and 2640-2642.

Except for being a weekend, regardless of it being a 3-day weekend or year-end, Friday’s close would be likely to gap down and extend down at the next intraday open. It’s still possible, but the special circumstances do allow a path higher that essentially treats Friday’s late collapse like an anomaly by gapping up above 2684.25. The overnight new high’s retest would become very likely.

  • Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
  • Globex re-opens Monday night at 6:00 PM ET. I’ll display a Bitcoin chart over New Year’s and comment where merited on any reaction.
Posted in Market Wrap, members-only, S&P