Market Wrap (recording & summary)

It’s going to take a lot more to kill this rally than the Dow plunging 385 points, and S&Ps down 39 points from high to low. Not a lot more, not if the market really wants it.

Not because so much energy has been expended already — Tuesday’s close was under Friday’s “lower prior highs,” so sellers did gain traction, keeping the door open to extending down Wednesday. But “unfinished business above” at Monday’s 2801.00 open should be retested before any durable decline.

Also still outstanding is a new trend high close as became required by Friday’s. And the ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Although sizeable by any measure, Tuesday’s plunge didn’t threaten the last relative low. Regardless, extending down without delay would next target lower prior highs at  2760.00 and 2750.00.

This being expiration week (and WedEX about to trigger), volatility at new highs can cut both ways, in sequence. With sellers having gained traction, rallying immediately Wednesday all but requires gapping up, which expiration volatility could easily accommodate. Filling the gap back to Tuesday’s open could easily probe the 2808.50 high, too.

A couple of other attractions may be influential. Tuesday afternoon’s late no-bias trending almost requires retesting its 2790.50 bias-down signal. And oversold RSIs at Tuesday’s low require retesting its 2769.25 low.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.