Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Wednesday’s 30-point drop from high-to-low only rivaled last Tuesday’s 39-point high-to-low intraday drop. Their afternoon bounces differed in all but one relevant element. Last Tuesday afternoon’s bounce was resisted by “higher prior lows” of the previous afternoon. But Wednesday’s bounce was probing back above the similar structure from Tuesday.

That difference allowed a gap up last Wednesday to target a retest of the prior day’s open and its high. But this time a gap up Thursday would have to be above Wednesday’s open before putting into play a retest of Wednesday’s high. Regardless, both open’s gapped up above all prior highs, so both require being filled intraday.

None of which requires filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 2848.00 open immediately. It’s likely to be tested sooner rather than later, if only because Wednesday afternoon’s 2839-2845 range was within its orbit. Its test can be influential overnight, but its attraction can be neutralized only intraday.

Meanwhile, Wednesday afternoon’s rally originated from under its 2835.50 bias-down signal, during its bias-down environment. Similar to “no-bias trending,” the bias-down signal must be retraced. And the delay in retracing it makes its 1:20 bias timing print likely to be retraced, too… at 2827.00. Either of these retracements can be neutralized overnight.

One thing becoming more likelier, if not more obvious, is that the market has entered a distributive phase. Rising prices intraday do not dictate resolution, and the intraday behaviors are revealing cracks.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.