Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Thursday afternoon’s volatility was somewhat surprising, but it’s not. I had anticipated a choppy morning and a subdued afternoon, almost paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings and pre-open payrolls. But bonds collapsed, paling future developments by comparison.

And bonds aren’t finished probing lower. Perhaps in the near-term they’ve overextended and Friday’s Employment Situation report will have only a brief shallow effect before S&Ps finally run out of sellers for this downleg. Next lower objectives are 2805.00 and 2793.50 before getting more aggressive.

Otherwise, like Thursday, Friday’s open isn’t likely to recover the 2835.00 line in the sand that would all but ensure momentum reversing up. But unlike Thursday, simply rallying out of Friday’s open — however shallow — could leverage Friday Factors to squeeze out a rally anyway.

Meanwhile, initially negative knee-jerk reactions to earnings (AMZN, AAPL, GOOGL) were reduced or reversed. That behavior was excessive optimism when the market did it on a Wednesday afternoon. Now it can be bullish if maintained through a Friday open.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.