Market Wrap (recording & summary)

January’s rally has now been retraced by 61.8% back down to December’s ~2700.00 highs. “Unfinished business above” at the highs up to 2878.50 requires a retest. There’s no timing element to fulfilling that requirement. Meanwhile, nothing requires this week’s plunge to extend down.

The decline’s next lower objectives under 2805.00 and 2793.50 were met at 2766.00 and 2760.00. Testing the latter and recovering to close back above 2766.00 would have at least suggested sellers had extended themselves. The position-squaring window trended down throughout, and the cash session close equated to 2760.00. Post-close action spiked down to 2755.25.

Extending down this week would next target 2747.00 and 2738.00 then 2722.00. All still within the context of a pullback, but unlikely to begin rallying without first forming an accumulative bottom. So, if this is one of those years with an up-January predicting an up-year, then extending down at all this week would be problematic.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND