Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Monday afternoon’s 2726.50 bias-up target was met by new highs into the final hour. Overbought RSIs helped a reaction down to 2720.00 to recover back to the high. And slightly higher, to 2727.75. RSIs were no long overbought on the retest, and price drifted back down to close under 2720.00. Monday’s close is essentially at equilibrium.

Recall from this weekend’s Saturday Review that 2725.25-2727.75 is the projected peak of a corrective bounce. Exceeding it through any relevant timing window would suggest something more substantial to the upside underway. Otherwise, if the correction from Friday’s low is done, then it should resolve down without much delay.

If/When sellers do retake control, they’ll likely be overwhelmingly focused on retracing the entire bounce as quickly as possible. So, any credible reversal down is unlikely to begin late in the session when it’s more difficult to attract sponsorship.

Resolving down without much delay should also be done without much confusion. Save for an initial stage that starts and stops, backing-and-filling up to Monday’s close, aggressive selling should be obvious into or out of Tuesday’s noon hour. Tuesday morning could be spent probing positive territory up to 2736.00 trying to extend Monday’s rally, and still be vulnerable to peaking.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.