Market Wrap (recording & summary)

It was a wide range, but a range nonetheless. Tuesday developed almost entirely above Monday’s 2716.25 cash session close, resisted by the 2726-2727 target created by Monday’s close above 2711.50. The morning’s bias left “unfinished business below,” an offsetting test of its 2710.25 bias-down signal. No matter how skeptical we were that it would be tested, and no matter how true that has been, it is an attraction that will need to be tested eventually.

So, was Tuesday’s go-nowhere strength only “ineffectual optimism” ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events? Possibly, but not enough of it to be very bearish from a contrarian perspective. Overnight and/or morning fluctuations may try to trend beyond either end of Tuesday’s range but probably won’t. In contrast, volatility after the policy statement and during Fed Chair Powell’s first quarterly Q&A could be off the charts — (almost) literally.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’LL BE AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BETWEEN 11:15-1:45 ET WEDNESDAY.

• Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
• Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.