Market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s gonna be a loooong weekend. Although the 1987-style crash analog is already broken, one of its elements is still tracking. Nearly two weeks of decline aren’t yet even attacking the first downleg’s lows or probing below them,
so a capitulation session will encounter more support. But multi-session trending into the weekend typically extends coming out of the weekend.
Rejecting the isolation setup during the open instead of only invalidating it would have been as bearish as the setup is otherwise bullish. Notwithstanding the last two invalidated isolation setups have resolved down sharply.
Meanwhile, the overnight “failed Descending Triangle” that avoided resolving down yet during the opening 15 minutes has resolved down following the afternoon bias environment. If that’s connected, then look out below Sunday night because the pattern’s resolution tends to be substantial.
Friday’s last downleg ultimately touched 2586.00, which touches Feb 5’s 2694.75 intraday low. It’s the original decline’s Pivotal Low, the low prior to Feb 9’s 2533.00 actual low. Having probed their 2730.50 interim high, returning to the Pivotal Low all but requires retesting the actual low.
A separate measurement already identifies the low’s retest as targeting 2509.00-2511.00. Separately again, the lower objective is already in-play for closing Thursday under 2652.00. Friday’s second consecutive lower close, and closing under its room for noise down to 2627.00, confirms.
There is potential for fresh lows Monday to be recovered through the afternoon. This would trigger a multi-session recovery. But the potential for a near-term durable bottom is low.
- Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
- REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM WILL RE-OPEN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GLOBEX.