Market Wrap (recording & summary)

When is a rally not a rally? Trick question — by any other name, a rally is a rally is a rally. But its sponsorship can vary, leading to entirely different resolutions.

Wednesday’s rally up to 2727.25 didn’t prove that its sponsorship was strong-handed. The consequence would be to retrace the rally entirely back to and likely through its origin at Tuesday’s ~2701.00. Wednesday’s opening surge was the reaction to pre-open defensive posturing, the morning couldn’t trigger bias-up, the afternoon’s bias-up target was met during the noon hour, and then not extended when the bias-up environment ended. All behaviors of weak hands.

And it wasn’t just that weak hands expended energy when they couldn’t gain traction for it, or that they fulfilled their buying pressure. The weak-handed rally also held a test of resistance at 2725.00, essentially filling the gap back to Monday’s close by testing the lower-end of the structure containing it.

The upper-end of that structure is essentially 2732.00, and its recovery through Thursday’s open would accomplish by proxy what Wednesday’s close did not. Similarly, it would serve by proxy to signal a bullish WedEX, which is otherwise bearish for having held the test of resistance.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.