Market Wrap (recording & summary)

The oddest part of Monday’s pattern isn’t its 22-point 2-1/2 hour drop from the morning’s attack on 2844.00. It isn’t the “unfinished business above” at the morning’s 2847.75 bias-up target, or the retracement required up to its 2040.75 bias-up signal. It’s not the Isolation setup that produced the optimal opening behavior.

The oddest part of Monday’s pattern hasn’t yet happened. And it might not. But it would be Tuesday’s gap up above Monday afternoon’s 2833.50 high, which — after having trended down into Monday’s close — would form a “session-long rally” setup. Like Monday’s Isolation setup, the optimal open would not only maintain the gap up but also trend up.

Like Monday’s setup, an optimal recovery open Tuesday could also reverse into an intraday decline. But that wouldn’t be so odd, considering Monday’s failure to exploit other recovery opportunities.

Triggering a session-long rally would also help to reject by proxy Monday’s close just slightly under Friday afternoon’s low, which the Isolation setup needed to hold. And it would undermine any momentum from Monday’s second consecutive lower close under Friday’s breakout close.

Otherwise, at least a third lower close is now required. Perhaps more would follow, regardless of the unfinished business above, which includes a bias-up target at 2866.25 left outstanding last week.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.