Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Wednesday night’s drop to 2913.25 had recovered to greet Thursday’s open at 2924.00,. The open slid back under 2919.00 to prove the pre-open bounce wasn’t attracting reinforcements. That did not, in itself, point any lower. It only created the vulnerability to other influences pointing lower.

And those other bearish influences did not, in themselves point lower so quickly. Downside projections of 2901.00 and 2896.00 had no particular timing requirement. Meeting them so quickly (and the afternoon’s 2888.00 renewed bias-down target) only creates other vulnerabilities.

Price action was at least momentarily responsive to the relevant levels of 2901.00, 2894.00 and 2888.00, bouncing to 2905.00 into the final hour. Closing back above them suggests that selling pressure was fulfilled. Friday morning selling pressure would be the product of new sponsorship. And new sponsorship is vulnerable to being trapped.

So, a knee-jerk negative reaction to Friday’s payrolls report must still break a new relevant level to reflect strong-handed sponsorship. Which is entirely possible, and then entirely vulnerable to resuming the decline into the weekend. Absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction could instead find Friday Factors triggering the short-squeeze that Thursday afternoon’s bounce tried to be.

Higher highs into the close up to 2908.00.50 recovered all of the relevant downside levels. The 2-week old 2907.50 prior low was still being tested, so we can’t be assured momentum had reversed up. The pattern remains vulnerable to a bearish reaction on Friday’s pre-open report, and to extending its bias through the noon hour.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.