Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Tuesday’s wide, sideways choppiness had reflected sharply disparate opinion and no inhibitions to expressing it, i.e. a breakout waiting to explode in one direction or the other. The argument was won decisively Wednesday.

S&Ps down 100 points at the close, 108 afterward, to 2780.00. From Tuesday’s 2886.00-2888.00 close. From last week’s 2942.00-2945.00 highs. Back under January’s high, and testing June’s 2788.00-2798.00 “lower prior highs” as support.

Meanwhile, the next set of lower prior highs begins at 2749.00. The next consolidation’s 61.8% retracement is around 2721.00. And the next confirmation of anything bigger would be to close under 2709.00.

Of the “unfinished business” outstanding above — 2947.50‘s new Globex trend extreme, the high’s 2945.25 opening gap up, no-bias trending retracements at 2900.50 and now also 2838.75 — only Wednesday’s 2838.75 is currently relevant, being less than one day and one leg removed. Both of which can become moot soon.

June’s lower prior highs form the upper-end of the Complex Ascending Triangle we’ve monitored weekly for months. It eventual break to new highs was likely, and likely to be short-lived, and likely to be reversed back down, hard (as the index comparison’s context has been suggesting for weeks). Its hard reversal is also likely eventually to retrace the triangle, usually fully to its 2528.00 low. But not in a single leg. And possibly not without an external artificial rescue attempt offering another detour up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.