Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Sunday night’s gap down had extended to a 23-26 point probe of negative territory, half of that under Thu-Fri’s lows. Eventually recovering it all for a pre-open probe of positive territory up to 2645.00 still reacted down in time to greet the open slightly negative. And soon, greatly negative. The morning’s 2583.00 low probed 20 points under October’s 2603.00 prior low.

Oversold RSIs left outstanding at the low didn’t prevent the balance of the session from reversing back up. The 2645.00 pre-open high was probed by 3-4 points before the close, and positive territory held its recovery. The close maintained the afternoon’s trending series of higher highs and higher lows.

Monday’s likeliest template was binary. Either the decline would resume, or another bounce would begin. A probe under October’s low was likely, regardless of its resolution. So, apart from the new unfinished business below needing to retest the low’s oversold RSIs, a bottom may be forming.

But one very important condition has yet to be met — closing back above a prior high. Even recovering a prior high through an entire timing window. Friday’s 2652.00 prior high was only attacked. Meanwhile, exiting Tuesday’s open under Monday afternoon’s 2615.00 low could form a “session-long decline” setup. That would incidentally invalidate Monday’s recovery, and probably also end the week sharply lower.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.