Market Wrap (recording & summary)
There’s no unfinished business below.
- Monday’s low had fulfilled the decline’s next lower objectives at 2361.00 and 2345.00.
- Tuesday night’s opening plunge testing 2317.00 didn’t qualify as being a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, due to the singular nature of its leg, and its later retest holding the noise range.
- Wednesday’s post-open surge to 2387.00 reacted down and filled the gap back to Monday’s 2352.00 cash session close, neutralizing its attraction.
- Holding tests of both morning bias-up parameters overcame the rejection by entering the noon hour above its 2372.50 bias-up target.
Two intraday behaviors signaled that buyers were stronger-handed than sellers:
- Monday’s 2352.00 cash session close held a test through Wednesday’s post-open dip, and another before the bias environment began lapsing.
- Printing fresh session highs during the afternoon bias environment wasn’t reversed back under a prior low before entering the final hour.
Does Wednesday’s 161-point rally from Tuesday night’s low already reward buyers for absorbing sellers? Too much, too soon, to extend higher immediately? Regardless of the upside vulnerability that facilitated it, Wednesday’s last intraday upleg is no different in principle than Sunday night or Tuesday night’s opening plunges which created extremes. And Wednesday is the first session gain for the decline beginning Dec 13, day-9 of what may be an Up/Down-Crash setup that would be timed to resolve this week.
Closing positive Thursday would at least invalidate the Up/Down-Crash setup. But this bounce has room up to 2525.00 and 2607.00 without yet qualifying as more than a temporary correction. I’m still reluctant to pronounce a bottom forming without there first being a capitulative session. Or, two — and Wednesday’s rally doesn’t limit this week’s vulnerability to that.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.