Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Bearish. Two days of hammering back at intraday rallies were joined Wednesday by a third. It was the most dramatic of the series, completely retracing a 24-point rally within 4 hours.

The rally was helped by having probed Tuesday’s 2829.00 low uncharacteristically ahead of FOMC — thanks to a barrage of Brexit headlines, topped off by a Trump China trade comment that spiked to fresh lows attacking 2817.00. So much weak-handed discounting ahead of FOMC made it almost impossible not to react favorably. The policy statement was greeted at 2825.25 and surged to 2842.50, then extended up to test 2849.00.

All of which was “no-bias trending” for originating during a no-bias environment, requiring a retracement of the 2828.75 bias-up signal. It was met before the position-squaring window opened, and retested into the close. No-bias trending can also retrace the 1:20 print, which was essentially 2823.25, and it was touched after the futures close. There is no “unfinished business,” above or below.

But there is a three-day pattern of retracing ever-larger intraday rallies. And the series’ third was both the biggest retracement AND the lowest. The market may be playing defense into the weekend if Thursday morning hasn’t recovered Wednesday’s high.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.