Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Monday’s rally to prior highs didn’t extend Tuesday. Neither was it rejected. The morning qualified as backing-and-filling, the pause that often consolidates outsized moves before resuming them. But trying to resume the rally failed. Trending up to touch the 2873.75 high, which had pierced Monday’s late high, then a last-minute collapse back under 2869.00 to 2867.00 through the futures close.

Fresh highs are possible regardless of the resolution, even if only temporary to stretch the rubber band so it can snap back down aggressively. Whether to 2879.00 or to 2885.50, a probe of fresh highs is either the likely reward for not having reversed the trend back down Tuesday, or the room for noise where strong-handed selling resumes. A bullish and a bearish path, both beginning with fresh highs.

An alternative bearish path would not first probe fresh highs, but instead exploit Tuesday’s chipping away at support to start breaking lower without delay. So would an alternative bearish path, with room down to 2866.00 before required to accelerate. A bullish and a bearish path, both beginning with a pullback.

Potential bearish setups could form before Wednesday’s open. Tuesday’s last-minute dip was too late to negate having trended up into the close, so gapping down under the 2868.50 afternoon bias environment low (regardless of Tuesday’s post-close break under it) could form a session-long decline. Probing fresh highs overnight wouldn’t require retest if already reversing down under earlier Globex lows for a Globex-flip. But the potential bullish setup should not only resume the rally, but at an accelerated pace.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.