Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Relatively narrow ranging Sunday night persisted right into Monday’s flat open. That turned out to be false advertising, as a decline suddenly began. The morning’s 2906.00 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick to avoid triggering, but it was broken through 10:30 to be invalidated. Sellers were rewarded down to 2900.50, where oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs will require an eventual retest.

The open’s collapse still stopped short of touching last week’s “lower prior highs” at 2898.00 and lower. So, bouncing out of the noon hour retested Friday’s 2910.00 gap up, but the bounce wasn’t qualified to neutralize its attraction. Friday’s dip was also too shallow. Impatient buyers are often rewarded, but not by nearly as much as anticipated. So, a fresh high remains vulnerable to rejection.

Meanwhile, there was glaring divergence among S&Ps, the Dow, and NDX. The Dow probed Friday’s highs Sunday night, while ES held within 1 tick, and NQs didn’t come close. Yet each opened essentially unchanged from Friday’s cash session close. Then each repeated its relative performance intraday — the Dow’s dip stopped short of touching Friday’s low, while NQs probed decisively lower. All of which is a warning sign, not only when ES also underperforms, but more so when the relative performance is repeated both above and below.

ES probing a fresh high Tuesday would offer an opportunity to compare the Dow and NQs for signs that the relative performance is persisting. Its rejection could accelerate down into Wednesday. A new trend high close could be bullish, at least for probing another fresh high intraday Wednesday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.