Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Was Wednesday a massive paradigm shift? That might seem to be the message being sent by the 19-point collapse from its 11-point gap up. But the the impending 3-day weekend’s illiquidity could be as much of a catalyst, exacerbating the ongoing intraday distributive pattern. Regardless, collapsing from 2923.50 down to 2904.50 before the 10:15 bias timing window is bearish behavior, as much as extending down to 2898.50 through the afternoon’s bias environment. But the burden of proof is on sellers, either to maintain the reversal into Thursday or to absorb an intraday bounce.

Their chances are mixed. One reason for carrying the burden of proof is that outside days like Wednesday often expend more energy than they can sustain. That could be neutralized by a morning bounce before retaking control in the afternoon. Also, the expiration week WedEX signal was bearish — passive bearish, having held tests of resistance. The setup still requires afternoon weakness to confirm, which could also fulfill the burden of proof.

Already trending down overnight would find “lower prior highs” offering significant support at 2892.00-2894.00. Already bouncing would find only sporadic resistance at 2911.00 and 2914.50 before fresh highs become likely. Any early support or resistance test before the weekend can be very predictive for the afternoon pattern.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.