Market Wrap (recording & summary)

Monday afternoon’s probing above its 2339.00 bias-up signal was appropriately delayed until exiting the no-bias environment. Then its break extended to probe its bias-up target to 2345.50. Its origin was late enough to not be “no-bias trending” that otherwise would be doomed to failure. That’s a little different from the pre-open surge that originated too late to be the product of strong-handed sponsorship — which has yet to matter.

The optimism is doubly interesting, since fresh highs were probed all this afternoon ahead of high-profile earnings due after the close. While not abnormal, it is unusual. Often, anxiousness paralyzes price action ahead of high-profile news. This suggests that optimism may be a little excessive.

Earnings of high-profile companies often inhibit trending attempts. This is regardless of negative reactions not having a track record of influencing the broader market. But probing fresh highs Monday afternoon ahead of its post-close earnings does seem like excessive optimism. And that is a concern when it develops in the context of trending that has ignored its vulnerability to reversing down already.

Retracing Monday’s rally could be obvious by already trending down overnight. That would be optimal, and in-line with the recent pattern of only retracing prior downlegs, and not actually probing above their origin — Monday’s rally retraced all of Friday afternoon’s downleg. Alternatively, probing higher Tuesday morning should be rejected coming into the noon hour. Otherwise, a bigger corrective bounce or rally is underway.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
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Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.