Mid-day Update… A toe-hold, on shale cliffs.

Massive recovery can’t afford to simply hover.

This morning’s drop eventually extended down to 2591.25. It was a retest of 2594.00, their interim bounce being the initial 2600.00 target. The target ultimately held.

An uptrending channel entered the noon hour up to 2610.00. Its reaction down was recovered by a surge that exited the noon hour at 2628.00. One more higher high into the bias environment at 2632.50 essentially fills the gap back to yesterday’s cash session close. The futures gap had filled already, having settled 5 points lower.

This is almost positive territory (basis cash). Any higher — not simply piercing or momentarily probing — would be likely to extend sharply higher on the day. The likeliest alternative is to reverse down sharply. Actually, reversing down is likelier than extending higher. Least likely is to range sideways into the close.

Back under 2625.25 (being tested now) would target at least 2607.00 today. Extending any higher would likely recover yesterday’s 2658.50 highs, and higher.